empty
07.03.2025 05:34 AM
EUR/USD Overview for March 7th

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair remained range-bound for most of Thursday but resumed its upward movement following the European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting results. The market's initial reaction was a new round of euro purchases, despite the ECB predictably lowering all three key interest rates. To reiterate: the ECB had planned to cut rates, the ECB cut rates, yet the euro still appreciated. This encapsulates the current market's complete detachment from logical price action. Investors continue selling off the U.S. dollar simply because they want no part of it, and this reluctance stems from a single factor—Donald Trump. This has been a recurring theme all week. Even on Monday, the euro surged without any macroeconomic justification.

As the days pass, Trump continues making new announcements, and the market keeps ignoring all macroeconomic and fundamental data. At this point, it no longer matters what the ECB or the Federal Reserve plan to do in 2025, how strong the U.S. economy is, or how weak the European economy appears. Everything revolves around Trump.

A week ago, no one could have predicted such a sharp rally in the euro. Yet, here we are, acknowledging that Donald Trump alone has upended all technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic outlooks. The market anticipates a significant deterioration in U.S. relations with Canada, China, Mexico, the European Union, and even India. Many experts argue that Trump disregards decades-long diplomatic ties, preferring to antagonize traditional allies. For instance, Canada is now witnessing the rise of a "Boycott American Goods" movement, with multiple governors declaring that they will halt U.S. imports and cut electricity exports. This is a direct message to Washington that not everything in global affairs revolves around money. Friendship matters, and when a supposed ally exploits economic leverage, that relationship ceases to be one of mutual trust. As a result, America's global standing is beginning to shift.

One must consider that every country is fundamentally driven by its people. Canadians see that the once-friendly U.S. is now acting against their interests. What happens if they collectively decide to boycott American goods? How will U.S. manufacturers, who were supposed to benefit from Trump's tariffs, react when demand dries up? What if Europeans or Chinese consumers join in? At this point, Trump's actions appear to be sowing chaos into a system that functioned smoothly for years. Time will tell who benefits from this strategy, but most analysts now forecast an inevitable U.S. recession—one that even the Federal Reserve had managed to avoid thus far.

This image is no longer relevant

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days stands at 122 points, classifying it as high volatility. For Friday, price movements are expected within the 1.0695–1.0939 range. The senior linear regression channel has flattened, and even if it turns upward, the long-term downtrend remains intact. The CCI indicator recently dipped into the oversold zone, signaling another potential upward correction.

Key support levels: S1 – 1.0803 S2 – 1.0742 S3 – 1.0681

Key resistance level: R1 – 1.0864

Trading Strategy Recommendations

EUR/USD has broken out of its previous range and continues to rally. In recent months, the outlook has consistently been bearish for the euro in the medium term, and nothing has changed in that regard. The dollar still has no fundamental reason for a prolonged decline—except for Donald Trump's policies.

Short positions remain more attractive with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, but confirmation is needed with a price breakout below the moving average. If you rely purely on technical trading, long positions may be considered above the moving average, targeting 1.0864 and 1.0939. However, any euro strength should still be viewed as a corrective move within the broader downtrend on the daily timeframe.

Explanation of Technical Indicators

  • Linear regression channels help determine the prevailing trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.
  • The moving average line (20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and trading direction.
  • Murray levels serve as potential target zones for price movements and corrections.
  • Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely trading range for the upcoming session, based on current volatility readings.
  • CCI indicator: Readings below -250 signal oversold conditions, while readings above +250 indicate overbought levels, potentially leading to trend reversals.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin huye de la criptocapital del mundo

Donald Trump prometió hacer de América la criptocapital del mundo, pero ¿quién necesita una capital de la que todos huyen? Las peores liquidaciones de empresas tecnológicas desde 2022 entristecieron

Marek Petkovich 11:54 2025-03-11 UTC+2

WTI – West Texas Intermediate. La recuperación de los precios del petróleo está limitada

Hoy, el petróleo ha intentado recuperarse desde los niveles más bajos observados desde septiembre de 2024. Sin embargo, la recuperación no puede considerarse positiva en el corto plazo. Los inversores

Irina Yanina 10:55 2025-03-11 UTC+2

Las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio están estancadas

Según informes de los medios, las negociaciones entre EE. UU. y China sobre comercio y otros asuntos se han estancado en niveles bajos, ya que ambas partes no logran entenderse

Jakub Novak 07:59 2025-03-11 UTC+2

El gas sigue subiendo rápidamente de precio

Las cotizaciones del gas se han consolidado de manera firme por encima del nivel de $4, y en este momento no hay razones para el regreso del mercado bajista

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:07 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 10 de marzo. La libra esterlina sigue subiendo.

El par de divisas GBP/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista el viernes. El paquete estadístico estadounidense no fue lo suficientemente fuerte, lo que completó el cuadro general del desastre del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:29 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 10 de marzo. ¿Cuánto tiempo más bajará Trump el tipo de cambio del dólar?

El par de divisas EUR/USD, naturalmente, siguió subiendo durante el viernes. Esta vez el mercado tenía buenas razones para vender el dólar, pero recordemos que durante toda la semana pasada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-03-10 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 5 de marzo. El mercado se está salvando. Se está salvando de la política de Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD sumó unos 80 puntos el martes, y 120 puntos un día antes. Por su parte, el dólar cayó en su cotización casi 200 puntos

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-05 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 5 de marzo. ¿Corrección alcista o cambio de tendencia global?

El par de divisas EUR/USD subió 110 pips el lunes, y el martes subió otros 60 pips antes del inicio de la sesión americana. La subida del euro

Paolo Greco 06:47 2025-03-05 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.