Analisis Forex & Kajian: 17.03.2025 - Dollar Sells Off, Recession...

17.03.2025 09:52 AM

Dollar Sells Off, Recession Threat Grows, S&P 500 Index Risks a Major Collapse

The dollar sell-off continues without signs of slowing down. According to the CFTC report, the net long position on the USD decreased by another $4.6 billion over the week, reaching $4.9 billion—the lowest level in 21 weeks. The euro contributes the most to this decline, followed by the pound, while changes in other currencies remain minimal.

On Friday, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a sharp drop in consumer confidence, falling 6.8 points to 57.9—the lowest level since the 2022 crisis. Considering the index also declined in February and January, the three-month drop totals 16.1 points, marking the steepest decline since May 2020.

The threat of a recession has suddenly become highly relevant. The U.S. economy grew steadily recently, with GDP expanding by 2.5% year-over-year in Q4 of last year. However, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model now projects a 2.4% contraction for the current quarter. This decline comes despite statements from Federal Reserve Chair Powell last week, who claimed that the U.S. economy continues to grow steadily. Markets have reacted extremely negatively to Trump's abrupt tariff policy moves.

The Fed is set to hold another meeting this week, and the market expects interest rates to remain unchanged. Overall, three rate cuts are anticipated this year. At the same time, markets are wary of recession risks and rising inflation. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9% in March—the highest since November 2022—while long-term expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9%.

The dollar remains under pressure, particularly against the yen and European currencies.

The U.S. stock market sell-off continues. Just a few weeks ago, there was potential for the S&P 500 to rise to 6,220. However, disappointment over the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies, recession fears, and inflation risks—essentially, the threat of stagflation—has drastically worsened the outlook.

Last week, we considered the S&P 500's decline a correction, expecting support around 5,660 but also warning of a much deeper drop to 5,270. Over the past week, conditions have deteriorated, with the S&P 500 falling to 5,503—the lowest level since September—and the probability of a further collapse has increased. The scenario is becoming increasingly bearish, with a possible rebound meeting resistance at 5,770, where another bearish impulse could form. The primary scenario now favors further declines to 5,090.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Kuvat Raharjo,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Tiada Kejutan Utama Dijangka daripada Mesyuarat Fed (Menjangkakan Kejatuhan Mendadak dalam EUR/USD dan Pertumbuhan Harga Emas yang Berhati-hati)

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 18 Mac? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan GBP/USD – 18 Mac: Pound Secara Berterusan Melonjak Naik

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan EUR/USD – 18 Mac: Penembusan Harga Telah Berakhir

USD/JPY: Analisis dan Ramalan

USD/CAD: Pasangan Memulakan Minggu Baharu dengan Berhati-hati

Adakah Pelabur Saham Bersedia Membeli Saham Semasa Kejatuhan Mendadak?

Tinjauan Pasangan GBP/USD – 17 Mac: Pasaran Telah Tenang. Tiada Siapa Peduli Tentang Ekonomi

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan EUR/USD – 17 Mac: Tiada Petunjuk Pembetulan

US Dollar: Pratonton Mingguan