विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 09.02.2023

09.02.2023 03:35 PM

Gold extends uptrend, but will it continue to climb?

This morning, precious metals continued to increase, supported by a weaker US dollar. Nevertheless, gold still fluctuates in a fairly wide range, which indicates that its position is not quite steady. A new portion of US economic data may strengthen gold's position. These data releases will clearly show future interest rate moves. So far, the Fed's current stance is not clear.

Spot gold prices rose by 0.5% this morning, climbing to $1,884.9 per ounce. Gold futures contracts for April delivery also increased, rising by 0.3% and reaching $1,896.1 per troy ounce.

Spot silver went up by 1.1% to $22.54 per ounce.

Platinum gained 1.5% and hit $984.45 per ounce. The best-performing metal was palladium, which grew by 1.7% to $1,676.12 per ounce.

The main positive factor for the precious metals market right now is the unstable position of the US dollar. USD is in retreat, which provides support to gold. Today, the US dollar retreated by 0.3% against other currencies. This made the precious metal more affordable for foreign currency holders.

According to most analysts, the precious metals market will consolidate near its current values in the near future. The situation will only change after the release of the latest US inflation data. The CPI data will be published next week, and gold will try to remain stable until then. The precious metal is currently holding steady. Furthermore, the US regulator is in no hurry to announce plans to tighten monetary policy, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech demonstrated. Therefore, demand for the precious metal is growing together with its price.

In the worst case scenario for gold, inflation will continue to rise. That will extend expectations of interest rate hikes, increasing pressure on gold and pushing down its price.

At the moment, the data does not provide any certainty. The future trajectory of the precious metals market will only become clear after the release of the initial jobless claims data in the US.

Earlier, Jerome Powell hinted that a larger interest rate hike was possible, but market participants did not take his remarks seriously. Not all market players agree that the country's economic growth is as strong as stated by the regulator. Jerome Powell also said that inflation has already begun to decline sharply.

Representatives of the US central bank also made comments on the situation. According to them, the probability of a rate hike is still present. However, no one can say if the Fed will really shift to a more aggressive policy if the data release is strong enough.

Gold is very sensitive to any changes in US monetary policy. As rates go up, the costs of owning the precious metal also go up.

According to analysts, the spot price of gold in the near future will be between $1,861 and $1,884 per ounce. A breakout in either direction may determine the trajectory of the precious metal.

If gold settles above the key level of $1,885 per ounce, it may then rise towards the next key level of $1,900. If the bearish trend prevails and gold breaks below the 4-week low of $1,860 per ounce, it may slide down to $1,854 or even $1,825 later on.

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